Many years ago, I was privileged to attend a dinner with James Rowe, one of the “passion for anonymity” young aides to Franklin Roosevelt, original author of the winning strategy for Harry Truman’s 1948 campaign and close confidant of then-President Lyndon Johnson.

Rowe described how Johnson tested insider opinion. He would call an ideologically wide range of acquaintances and ask their views on an issue of the day. Most responded as he expected. But when one or two said something he hadn’t expected, he would take notice. Maybe things weren’t going as he thought.

Read more ….

My Comment: President Obama will not order the bombing of Iran …. on the contrary …. U.S. combat forces will be out of Iraq very soon, and the groundwork is being laid for U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. I call all of this talk and speculation on a possible U.S. military campaign against Iran the following …. just talk and speculation among pundits who have nothing better to do during the summer doldrums.

Will President Obama Order The Bombing Of Iran? is a post from: Updated News

Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, could step down in three months after the country’s Prime Minister refused to extend his term, a television channel has claimed.

The unconfirmed reports will prompt speculation that Mr Dagan, 65, is being ousted over a botched operation in January to kill a Hamas operative in Dubai that led to a diplomatic backlash from some of Israel’s closest allies.

Read more ….

Top military leadership will change hands within six months — Haaretz
‘Mossad doesn’t accept losers’ — Jerusalem post
Mossad chief’s tenure may not be extended: report — Global Times/Xinhuanet
Head of Mossad Ousted — FOX News
PM’s office: Mossad chief didn’t ask to extend his tenure — Ynet News
Dubai police chief: Dagan exit overdue — Haaretz
Dubai police chief: Dagan ousted because Israel won’t ‘accept losers’ — Haaretz
Dubai Police Chief: ‘Dagan quit as Israel won’t accept losers’ — Ynet News
Who will replace Dagan?: War for replacement of Mossad Chief Meir Dagan is already underway — Ron Ben-Yishai, Ynet News opinion

After 8 Years, Israel’s Mossad Chief To Step Down is a post from: Updated News

When the U.S. Air Force launched its secret space plane last month, speculation about the X-37B’s true purpose ran wild.

Some conjectured that it might be a prototype for an orbiting bomber. Others warned of “a johnny-on-the-spot weapons platform to take out the satellite assets of an enemy.” Prominent members of the Russian military establishment screamed that Moscow needed to build up its own space arsenal, ASAP. The British press, meanwhile, made dark insinuations about “the testing of new laser weapon systems” in space.

My Comment: Reaction to the launch of the X-37B has been interesting. The Russian Generals now want their own space weapons, the Iranians believe that this system is directed at them, and others believe that this will start an arms race in space.

My take …. the Russians, Iranians, and arms control advocates are all probably right.

The X-37B Is Probably An Orbiting Spy Platform is a post from: Updated News

Every scholar, writer, or intellectual takes on serious obligations toward the reader when he or she engages in speculation or hypothesis. Among the most important of these obligations is to assess the probability of his proposition and, if the probability is remote, to be cognizant the consequences and uses of his exercise in speculative analysis.

On both these counts, Ethan Burger’s openDemocracy article “Could partition solve Ukraine’s problem” fails to meet to meet the test of responsible speculation.

Read more ….

My Comment: My family on my father’s side are Russian-Ukrainians, so my input on the Ukraine has always been through this filter. But I believe that I can add more to the discussion, in that while my nationality is Russian, I grew up (and continue to live) in Quebec, Canada …. a province within Canada that is also split along language/cultural divisions.

In fact …. when I visit the Ukraine I am struck by the similarities between the two countries. I will not list all of these similarities and differences in this post, but Adrian Karatnycky makes a very good point in his article that also explains the situation in Quebec ….

…. “Why is it that when we Easterners and Westerners travel abroad to watch soccer we all cheer together and get along? And why is that here in Ukraine we always talk of our divisions. I’ll tell you why: here we are surrounded by politicians.” ….

Exactly my point …. the political class is invested in fermenting a crisis, and nationalism is an easy crisis to manufacture. Ukraine will probably continue to go through “rough times”, but as long as the electorate can be successful in providing a balance in the political arena …. the Ukraine will overcome its problems just as Quebec over the years had to overcome a majority of its own problems and differences.

A Commentary On Ukraine is a post from: Updated News

ISLAMABAD — A senior Pakistani official said Wednesday there was credible information that Hakimullah Mehsud, head of the Pakistan Taliban, died of wounds inflicted by a U.S. missile strike last month in the first official statement about the fate of the militant leader. Still, the statement stopped short of being sure.

“I have credible information that he’s dead, but I don’t have any confirmation,” Rehman Malik, the federal interior minister told reporters in Islamabad as the speculation intensified about whether Mr. Mehsud, 30 years old, was dead.

Read more ….

My Comment: I guess it is now confirmed … he is definitely gone and I am sure that I am not the only one who is sorry to see him 6 feet under.

Pakistan Officials ’100 Percent’ Certain Taliban Chief Is Dead is a post from: Updated News

Hakimullah Mahsud was injured in a missile strike by a U.S. drone last month. He is the group’s second leader killed in six months.

Reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan – The Pakistani Taliban confirmed Tuesday that its leader, Hakimullah Mahsud, has died from injuries suffered in a U.S. drone missile strike last month, forcing the insurgency to find a new leader for the second time in six months.

The death of Mahsud, engineer of a devastating series of suicide attacks and raids on markets, mosques and security installations across Pakistan late last year, gives the U.S. another major victory in its ongoing campaign of missile strikes against top Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders.

Read more ….

Sources: Pakistani Taliban leader is dead — CNN
Pakistani Taliban chief confirmed dead – Foreign Policy
Hakimullah dead, say US channels, newspapers — DAWN
Taliban confirm Hakeemullah Mehsud dead — The Nation
Speculation Intensifies Over Pakistan Taliban Leader’s Death — Wall Street Journal
Fate Of Pakistani Taliban Chief Still Unclear — New York Times/Reuters
Why the Drone Killing of a Taliban Leader Matters — The Atlantic Wire

Pakistani Taliban Chief Confirmed Dead is a post from: Updated News

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says the U.S. hasn’t had intelligence on Usama bin Laden in years, but National Security Adviser Jim Jones speculates he is in North Waziristan and freely crossing the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

WASHINGTON — National Security Adviser James Jones said Sunday that Al Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden still spends some time inside Afghanistan.

Most recent U.S. estimates have placed bin Laden inside Pakistan. But Jones, a retired general, said the best estimate is that bin Laden “is somewhere in North Waziristan, sometimes on the Pakistani side of the border, sometimes on the Afghan side of the border.”

Read more ….

My Comment: One senior officials says that they have no intelligence on where Bin Laden has been hiding out for the past few years …. another official says he is on the border regions.

Sigh ….. they have no clue on where he is …. or even if he is alive.

More Speculation On Osama Bin Laden’s Whereabouts is a post from: Updated News

(RFE/RL) — The mystery over Osama bin Laden’s whereabouts has taken a new turn, with multiple reports claiming that the Al-Qaeda leader is not hiding in Pakistan, as widely believed, and could be in Afghanistan.

Information about the location of the man the U.S. blames for orchestrating the 9/11 terrorist attacks has been scarce ever since international forces launched a manhunt for him in Afghanistan in 2001. He is widely believed to have evaded efforts to capture him by crossing the border and finding safe have in the restive tribal areas of northwest Pakistan.

Read more ….

Bin Laden ‘in Afghanistan in 2009′ — BBC
Taliban: Bin Laden’s Hiding in Afghanistan — Newser
Bin Laden not in our country, says Pakistan – The Independent
I don’t think Osama is in Pakistan: Gilani to Brown — Hindustan Times

Where Is Osama Bin Lden? is a post from: Updated News

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed “great regret” in August that the U.S. is not a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC). This has fueled speculation that the Obama administration may reverse another Bush policy and sign up for what could lead to the trial of Americans for war crimes in The Hague.

The ICC’s chief prosecutor, though, has no intention of waiting for Washington to submit to the court’s authority. Luis Moreno Ocampo says he already has jurisdiction—at least with respect to Afghanistan.

Read more ….

My Comment: It is because of prosecutors like Luis Moreno Ocampo that the rules of engagement for U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan are now limited. While this may be applauded by many who wish to limit military operations, the sad fact is that it is not only endangering lives of our soldiers, but it is also promoting the Taliban to use civilian shields when planning attacks against government/NATO forces.

Prosecuting American ‘War Crimes’ is a post from: Updated News

From The New York Times:

General George Casey Jr., the Army chief of staff, said on Sunday that he was concerned that speculation about the religious beliefs of Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, accused of killing 12 fellow soldiers and one civilian and wounding dozens of others in a shooting rampage at Fort Hood, could “cause a backlash against some of our Muslim soldiers.”

“I’ve asked our Army leaders to be on the lookout for that,” General Casey said in an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union. “It would be a shame — as great a tragedy as this was — it would be a shame if our diversity became a casualty as well.”

Read more ….

My Comment: It is reassuring that the Army Chief is concerned for Muslim troops …. but he should also be concerned that there are no more Hasans bent on committing jihad in the U.S. military.

Army Chief Concerned for Muslim Troops is a post from: Updated News